i-TSM Plan

In the i-TSM Plan the next stake is calculated having taken into account your moving average strike rate. This way you can increase/decrease your stakes during a period where your strike rate is above the expected strike rate or vice versa (below the expected strike rate). The moving average can be based over 10, 20, 30, or 50 bets. 

Like the Kelly Staking Plan it does require you to know your expected strike rate from the outset. 

 

In this example I have loaded some historical data for a daily newspaper tipster from 01/01/2015 to present. There have been 126 bets. The strike rate was 27.8%. This can be seen from the Quick Stats in TSM. 

Now we need to set the strike rate in the i-TSM Plan Staking Plan settings. 

 

Quick Stats - i-TSM Plan

 

Settings

In the settings on the left we have changed the strike rate to 28%. 

The rest of the settings have been left at default. 

The start stake is 1% of £100 which is £1. 

If the strike rate is > than 28% then the stake is left at £1. 

If the overall strike rate is < than 28% than the stake is left at £1. 

If the strike rate for the last 10 bets is < than 28% the stake is increased by 10% of the initial £1 stake. So this would be an increase of 10p. 

If the strike rate for the last 20 bets is < than 28% the stake is increased by 20% of the initial £1 stake. So this would be an increase of 20p. 

If the strike rate for the last 30 bets is < than 28% the stake is increased by 30% of the initial £1 stake. So this would be an increase of 30p.

If the strike rate for the last 50 bets is < than 28% the stake is increased by 40% of the initial £1 stake. So this would be an increase of 40p.

The total additions/subtractions to the initial stake are totalled up and added to the default £1 stake.  

You can also do the reverse of the above and decrease stakes. You can also increase stakes when the strike rate is above the expected strike rate.

The last thing you can do is link the Starting Stake to the Cumulative total. So as the Cumulative total increases so does your stakes.